Tue Nov 3, 2026 edition

Apple beats, then slips: Palantir, Korea and Election Day

AP's Morning Brief · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · covers the Monday, November 2 session and Tuesday pre-market · closes as of Monday 4:00pm ET; oil, yields, gold, bitcoin and premarket moves as of about 6:45–6:56am ET Tuesday · times are ET

Brief art: AP's Morning Brief.

Good morning, everyone ☀️ Ballots today, AMD tonight. Apple beat on earnings after Monday's bell, then guided margins below estimates, and Americans head to the polls.

BTW: AMD reports tonight. Every big report this week is on our earnings calendar.

Inside: Monday's close, Apple's beat-then-slip, Palantir, the chip deal, Seoul and Taipei, factories and oil, mortgages, the Binance money trail and Election Day.

Apple wins the quarter, loses the morning

Monday close: The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40 [1] and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.07% to 25,164.36, [2] while the Dow added 0.41% to 51,983.98. [3] North of the border, the S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.51% to 35,801.09 from 35,620.03. [4]

Apple beat: Apple earned $2.10 a share on $114.48 billion in revenue, ahead of the $1.99 and $113.39 billion analysts expected. Revenue rose 12% from $102.5 billion a year ago. [5]

Apple slip: The catch is the forecast: December-quarter gross margin of 45% to 46%, below the 46.3% Wall Street wanted. [5] Apple closed Monday at $338.32 (−1.83%) and was at $325.35 premarket, down 3.83%, as of about 6:56am ET. [6] [7] A record year, graded on next quarter.

Palantir: Revenue hit $2.31 billion versus $2.18 billion expected, with U.S. commercial sales up 148% to $984 million. [8] The stock still slid about 8% premarket (to $164.08, −7.99%, as of about 6:56am ET) as U.S. commercial contract growth slowed to 11%, per Piper Sandler. [6] [9]

Chip deal: Marvell fell 12.72% to $171.41 and Lumentum dropped 18.59% to $684.40 Monday [11] after Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in a deal with an implied enterprise value of $115 billion. [10]

Oracle: Oracle fell 8.76% to $119.22 after filing plans to issue $10 billion in stock and $10 billion in bonds to fund its AI build-out. [12]

Why it matters: Beats are not enough this season; guidance and funding costs are what moved the stocks.

Global: Seoul and Taipei hit the brakes

South Korea: The Kospi ended 3.59% lower at 5,648.79 as tech stocks led Asia down. [13] [14]

Taiwan: The Taiwan Weighted Index also fell 3.59%, to 43,307.54. [13] [14] Same drop, different island.

Japan: Markets were closed for a public holiday. [13]

Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.34% to 8,886.8, one of the few greens in the region. [13] [14]

Europe: As of about 6:41am ET the FTSE 100 was down 0.58% at 10,699.09 and the DAX down 0.59% at 25,829.10, [15] even as Bayer rose as much as 5.6% after raising its earnings guidance. [13]

Economy: factories, oil and a 4.9% yield

55.5%: ISM manufacturing PMI for October, released Monday. Above 50 means expansion. [16]

49.6: Canada's manufacturing PMI for October, down from 51.5 in September and the first contraction this year. [17]

$98.47: WTI crude as of about 6:46am ET, up 2.08%; Brent was at $106.46, up 1.61%. [18]

4.937%: The 10-year Treasury yield as of about 6:55am ET, up from 4.894%. [19] Your mortgage broker noticed.

$3,915.60: Gold futures, down 1.36% as of about 6:46am ET. [20]

2 reports: September JOLTS job openings and factory orders land today. [13]

Real estate: still above 7%, but drifting down

Good news: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average eased to 7.24% as of Oct 29 from 7.32% the week before. [21]

Bad news: A year ago it was 6.17%, so buyers are still paying about a point more. [21]

Good news: The 15-year fixed slipped to 6.60% from 6.68%. [21]

Bad news: It was 5.41% a year ago. [21] Progress, measured in basis points. Track it on our mortgage rates page.

Crypto: following the $6.3 billion trail

Biggest coin: Bitcoin was at $76,968.30, up 0.24%, as of about 6:56am ET. [22]

Biggest denial: North Korea rejected allegations linking it to the $6.3 billion Binance hack, calling them a “grave political provocation.” [23]

Biggest freeze: About $2.85 billion has been frozen or seized, according to Elliptic. [23]

Biggest maze: Stolen funds moved through roughly 12,000 wallets and 40,000 transactions across 11 blockchains. [23]

Biggest hop: Funds moved onto Solana after $500 million was drained from Tron staging wallets, per Chainalysis. [23]

Ballots today, AMD tonight

Odds: Prediction markets give Democrats nearly 75% odds of taking the Senate, per CNBC. JPMorgan says a Democratic sweep could spark a selloff in AI stocks. [13]

Tonight: AMD and Super Micro report after the close. Pfizer, Shopify, Eaton and Marathon Petroleum report before the open. [13] The full week is on the earnings calendar.

Bottom line: A record quarter met a cautious guide, and tonight brings both ballots and AMD.

Levels sheet

Know your levels before the bell. Our free levels sheet lays out the key index levels on the chart each week, in one page. Grab it at apsmorningbrief.com/levels

That's the brief

Which number are you watching tonight? Hit reply and tell me.

— AP Dult

Sunday to Friday at 7:30am ET

Sources

1. CNBC, S&P 500 quote (.SPX), close Nov 2, 2026, fetched Nov 3 ~6:56am ET: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX
2. CNBC, Nasdaq Composite quote (.IXIC), close Nov 2, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.IXIC
3. CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average quote (.DJI), close Nov 2, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI
4. CNBC, S&P/TSX Composite quote (.GSPTSE), close Nov 2, 2026 (prior close 35,620.03): https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.GSPTSE
5. CNBC, "Apple Q4 2026 earnings live updates" (Nov 2, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/apple-aapl-q4-2026-earnings-live-updates.html
6. CNBC, "Apple, Palantir and more stocks moving premarket" (Nov 3, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/03/apple-palantir-stock-earnings.html
7. CNBC, Apple quote (AAPL), close Nov 2 and premarket ~6:56am ET Nov 3: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AAPL
8. CNBC, "Palantir Q3 2026 earnings" (Nov 2, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/palantir-pltr-earnings-q3-2026.html
9. CNBC, Palantir quote (PLTR), close Nov 2 and premarket ~6:56am ET Nov 3: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PLTR
10. CNBC, "Marvell to buy Lumentum in $115 billion deal" (Nov 2, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/marvell-to-buy-lumentum-in-115-billion-deal-in-ai-data-center-bet-.html
11. CNBC, Marvell (MRVL) and Lumentum (LITE) quotes, close Nov 2, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MRVL
12. CNBC, "Oracle files to sell $20 billion in new stock, bonds" (Nov 2, 2026) and ORCL quote: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/oracle-files-to-sell-20-billion-in-new-stock-bonds-to-finance-ai-buildout.html
13. CNBC, "Stock market today" live updates (Nov 2–3, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
14. CNBC, Kospi (.KS11), Taiwan Weighted (.TWII), S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) quotes, close Nov 3, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.KS11
15. CNBC, FTSE 100 (.FTSE) and DAX (.GDAXI) quotes, ~6:41am ET Nov 3: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.FTSE
16. ISM, "Manufacturing PMI at 55.5%; October 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report" (Nov 2, 2026): https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-55-5-october-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302925617.html
17. Yahoo Finance Canada, "Stocks jump at noon" (Nov 2, 2026), S&P Global Canada manufacturing PMI: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-jump-noon-164300098.html
18. CNBC, WTI (@CL.1) and Brent (@LCO.1) quotes, ~6:46am ET Nov 3: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1
19. CNBC, U.S. 10-year Treasury (US10Y) quote, ~6:55am ET Nov 3: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
20. CNBC, gold futures (@GC.1) quote, ~6:46am ET Nov 3: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@GC.1
21. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (as of Oct 29, 2026): https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
22. CNBC, Bitcoin (BTC.CM=) quote, ~6:56am ET Nov 3: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=
23. CNBC, "North Korea rejects Binance hack allegations" (Nov 3, 2026), citing Elliptic and Chainalysis: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/03/north-korea-binance-elliptic-chainalysis.html

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