Mon Nov 2, 2026 edition

Bounce or bait? Futures up, Apple after the bell

AP's Morning Brief · Monday, November 2, 2026 · covers the Friday, October 30 session and Monday pre-market · figures checked as of about 7:00am ET · times are ET

Brief art: AP's Morning Brief.

Good morning, everyone ☀️ Monday open after Hangover Mode: futures want a bounce, and Apple's numbers after the bell decide whether it sticks.

BTW: This week's levels sheet is one page of key index lines at apsmorningbrief.com/levels.

Inside: Friday's close, futures, Intel, Apple, oil, Asia and Europe, the rate picture, mortgages, crypto and the week.

The hangover: Friday's close

What happened? Big Tech dragged everything lower on Friday, Oct 30. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, [1] the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.86% to 25,437.00 [2] and the Dow lost 1.09% to 51,770.31. [3] Up north, the S&P/TSX Composite fell 628.97 points (1.74%) to 35,620.03. [4]

Also: Alphabet slid another 1.40% Friday to $279.84, [9] and on Monday it began its second euro bond sale this year after raising €9 billion in May, per Bloomberg. Big Tech keeps borrowing to build. [6]

Bounce attempt: futures this morning

What's happening? As of about 7:03am ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.48% at 7,650.50, Nasdaq futures up 0.78% at 28,756.75 and Dow futures up 0.52% at 52,189.00. [5] Bloomberg had Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.9% and S&P 500 contracts up 0.5% earlier in the morning, helped by falling oil. [6] The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.92%. [6]

Translation: One green morning does not undo a red month.

Trapdoor: Intel

What happened? Intel closed Friday at $65.76, down 28.58%, [7] its worst day since the 1970s, after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion against the $17.1 billion analysts expected, per LSEG. [8] It also guided to adjusted earnings of 25 cents a share against 43 cents expected. [8]

Spotlight: Apple after the bell

What's next? Apple closed Friday at $344.63, down 1.23%, [10] yet ended the day as the most valuable listed company at $5.03 trillion, overtaking Nvidia. [5] New CEO John Ternus hosts his first earnings call after Monday's close, and Palantir reports too. [5] [11] No pressure.

Oil: from six-month highs to a Monday drop

Friday: WTI settled up 2.08% at $104.12 and January Brent at $113.43 on fears the Iran conflict escalates. [12]

Monday: Brent fell 4.3% to $108.57 on a report that President Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time, per Bloomberg. [6] December WTI was down 4.47% at $99.47 as of about 7:03am ET. [5]

OPEC+: The seven core members kept December required production unchanged on Sunday and meet again on November 29. [13]

Asia: Tokyo slips, Seoul jumps

Japan: The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.33% to 63,081.86 Monday [14] as Kioxia sank 15.78% on a soft outlook, per Reuters. [15]

South Korea: The KOSPI jumped 2.24% to 5,859.08, with SK hynix up 3.81%. [16] Chips found a friend in Seoul.

Europe: Alstom derails

France: Alstom plunged 25% after the train maker cut its full-year guidance and announced an overhaul, per Bloomberg. [6] Late trains, it turns out, are expensive.

Macro: the rate picture

3.4%: Third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the advance estimate. [17]

3.75% to 4.00%: The Fed held rates in a 10 to 2 vote; both dissenters wanted a hike. [18]

2.50%: The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 2½%. [19]

4.94%: The 10-year Treasury par yield at Friday's close. [20] ISM manufacturing lands Monday at 10:00am ET. [11]

55,000: Friday's October payrolls consensus, with unemployment seen holding at 4.2% (FactSet via CNBC). September added just 29,000. [11]

Mortgage rates

Good news: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average eased to 7.24% as of Oct 29 from 7.32% the week before. [21]

Bad news: It is still above 7%, [21] and in Canada the policy rate just went up to 2½%. [19]

Crypto

Biggest exit: Binance saw $3.64 billion in withdrawals after reopening from a reported hack, about 2.1% of its assets. [5]

Best bounce: Bitcoin climbed back above $78,000 Monday after a six-week low on Friday, [5] though it was at $77,772.84 as of about 7:03am ET. [5]

Today and this week

Monday: ISM manufacturing (October) at 10:00am ET; Apple and Palantir report after the close. [11] The full day-by-day calendar is in Sunday's week-ahead brief.

Bottom line: Futures want a bounce, but Apple's numbers after Monday's bell decide whether it sticks.

Levels sheet

Know your levels before the bell. Our free levels sheet lays out the key index levels on the chart each week, in one page. Grab it at apsmorningbrief.com/levels

That's the brief

Bounce or bait? Hit reply and tell me which way you lean before Apple reports.

— AP Dult

Sunday to Friday at 7:30am ET

Sources

1. CNBC, S&P 500 index quote (.SPX), close Oct 30, 2026, fetched Nov 2, 2026 ~7:00am ET: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX
2. CNBC, Nasdaq Composite quote (.IXIC), close Oct 30, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.IXIC
3. CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average quote (.DJI), close Oct 30, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI
4. Yahoo Finance, S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE), close Oct 30, 2026: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPTSE
5. Yahoo Finance, "US Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Apple Earnings as Binance Hack, Oil Prices and Midterm Elections Take Focus" (Nov 2, 2026), incl. futures/commodity strip read ~7:03am ET: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/us-stock-futures-rise-ahead-102324675.html
6. Bloomberg via swissinfo.ch, "US stock futures rise as oil slump buoys sentiment: Markets wrap" (Nov 2, 2026): https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/us-stock-futures-rise-as-oil-slump-buoys-sentiment%3A-markets-wrap/92310840
7. CNBC, Intel quote (INTC), close Oct 30, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/INTC
8. CNBC, "Intel stock has worst day since 1970s" (Oct 30, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/30/amazon-intel-earnings-big-tech-ai-spending-concerns.html
9. CNBC, Alphabet quote (GOOGL), close Oct 30, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GOOGL
10. CNBC, Apple quote (AAPL), close Oct 30, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AAPL
11. CNBC, "Stock market next week: outlook for Nov. 2–6, 2026" (Oct 30, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/30/stock-market-next-week-outlook-for-nov-2-6-2026.html
12. CNBC (Reuters), "Oil rises on supply concerns" (Oct 30, 2026): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/30/oil-rises-on-supply-concerns-as-houthis-attack-saudi-arabia.html
13. OPEC, press release, 1 November 2026: https://www.opec.org/pr-detail/2033620-1-november-2026.html
14. Nikkei Indexes, Nikkei 225 daily summary, Nov 2, 2026: https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/summary?dt=11022026&idx=nk225
15. Reuters via Arab News Japan, "Japan's Nikkei ends lower as Kioxia tanks" (Nov 2, 2026): https://www.arabnews.jp/en/business/japans-nikkei-ends-lower-as-kioxia-tanks-tokyo-electron-rises-on-strong-outlook-3001223
16. Aju Press, KOSPI close, Nov 2, 2026: https://www.ajupress.com/view/20261102164546165
17. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 (Oct 29, 2026): https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026
18. Federal Reserve, FOMC statement (Oct 28, 2026): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
19. Bank of Canada, "Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½%" (Oct 28, 2026): https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/
20. U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610
21. Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (as of Oct 29, 2026): https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

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